PRICE ACTION

PRICE ACTION

sobota, 30 czerwca 2012

Why it's important to not have any bias?

 EURUSD M15
 EURUSD H1 (Friday early morning GMT)
 USD index - rising wedge (usually strong move can be expected)
EUR index - after breakout, it even came back to the apex.

Why you should take the trade on Thursday around 6pm GMT?
Just analize those 4 screenshots above.
I admit, I didn't take it. The reason I missed it was my strong bias to be short EURUSD below 1.2440.
Seeing all this, plus watching break below 1.2440 not very convincing - I should know better.
BTW I'm not showing it trying to be a smart ass after the fact.
All I want is to bring to my, and your attention how psychology + having bias can make you miss a very nice trade. And I'm not saying that next time it's gonna be the same. I'm saying that it was worth to take that trade and next one like that, because the risk was small... TRUST THE CHART, IGNORE THE STORY...

piątek, 29 czerwca 2012

That's how I view possibilities to make money on EURUSD today.
Personaly, I don't like to trade on Fridays.
We have couple secnarios going on:
You can see bullish Flag forming inside of 1.2550-1.2630 range, which will give you better entry if you're a bull (instead of waiting for break out of 1.2630.
On the other hand break of 1.2550 will give us notion of bears being in power, however it can also be a part of bullish flag (channel bounce), so the throwback we'll be looking for is going to be hard to enter on, as instead we might get break out of the flag.
I think that circled area around 1.2580-1.2590 will be a key level where the bull-bear fight may occur.
Have fun!

środa, 27 czerwca 2012

EURUSD M15 chart.
As the range is tightening, here are posssible trades to consider between 1.2440 - 1.2530 levels.
Remember to watch PA- price reaction at the levels, and do not enter trades blindly. Enjoy!

wtorek, 26 czerwca 2012

As planed yesterday, after breakout to the downside, we got beautiful entry on the throwback at 1.2520 for a short trade with first level to take a profit at around 1.2440-1.2450.

Congrats for those who entered at 1.2520, and grabed thier few pips
Congrats for those who played whole move, as it was perfectly called, and possible to take from the top to the bottom (70-80 pips)
Congrats for those who entered and hold the trade till 1.2300 and possibly beyond, while tightening trailing SL
Untill we'll see meaningful close above 1.2590, I expect staying in the range (1.2440-1.2590).

After breaking out of 1.2590 - take long on pullback with possible TP @ 1.2725-1.2750 level zone (as a resistance of a wider range between 1.2440-1.2750) Break out of 1.2820 will open the space towards 1.3030.
If we break out of 1.2440 to the downside (but watch also PA around 1.2425) enter short trade on throwback with 1.2300 as a first TP level, and be aware of possible continuation lower towards 1.18

niedziela, 24 czerwca 2012

Right now I'm waiting for one of these scenarios to play.
Move up towards 1.2725-1.2750 will keep EURUSD in consolidation.
After break out of Friday's consolidation to the downside I can see 1.2440 as important level to break. If EURUSD will not hold 1.2440 I expect reaching double bottom at around 1.2300 next with possible continuation of downtrend towards 1.2000 and 1.18.
As I know that I don't know which way the EURUSD will go, the best I can do is wait for the price action to guide me, and react to what I see instead of anticipating and trying to have any bias.

piątek, 15 czerwca 2012

Little something for unpatient traders:
Head and Shoulders on M15 is forming.
Unpatient Shorting now (1.2620-30)
Patient shorting below 1.2613, preferable short on throwback to 1.2613 after breakout.
One thing that needs to be pointed out is: remember that head and shoulders can also be a continuation pattern! It's very common to see false breakouts (watch price action on multiple timeframes as it will tell you everything - I prefere the H1 candlestick closing price as additional confirmation).
BTW if i took short trade at 1.2620-1.2630 i would tighten my SL now.

czwartek, 14 czerwca 2012

Zone 1.2615-1.2640 has been reached. It is a value level for EURUSD bears who are aiming all the way to 1.2440 and below, playing potential head and shoulders setup.Additionally we have double 1:1 swings at around 1.2630.

środa, 13 czerwca 2012


Update for EURUSD for 13th of June.
Anticipate head and shoulders if we'll see reversal from marked zone between 1.2590 - 1.2640.
If 1.2670 gets broken to the upside look for 1.2750-1.2820 zone as next important, possible reversal zone
Potential shorting zone for EURUSD at 1.2616-1.2638
Fibo 50% at 1.2555
For short term traders there might be opportunity coming up on the pullback to 1.2555 - LONG towards 1.2600 - plenty of pips.

wtorek, 12 czerwca 2012

Sweet spots to trade EURUSD:
1. Short 1.2616
2. Short break below 1.2442 (entry on throwback to 1.2442)
Watch price action between 1.2540-1.2560
3. Long break out above 1.2528 (entry on pullback to 1.2528) - not advised because of 1.2540-1.2560 zone